miércoles, 22 de octubre de 2008

Actuario de café


Cálculo a mano alzada garrabateado en una servilleta de papel manchado con feca.

Fondo individual promedio (después de 10 años como aportante, promedio ponderado a ojímetro) : $ 10,302 (al 30 de septiembre, previo a la debacle local y también internacional)

Después de 30 años eso se incrementaría a casi $31,000.

Porrateado ese tocazo en 170 meses de sobrevida promedio: $ 182 mensuales, sin aguinaldo.

¿Aguantaría con ese ingreso alguno de los que hoy dicen que se quejan de la confiscación alegando saber manejar sus ahorros mejor que el estado?

En pocos días estos bravucones estarían todos caceroleando por un salvavidas del ANSeS.

Otra prueba ácida:

Aún con subsidios del 11% al 35% (alícuota del Impuesto a las Ganancias) sobre la inversión individual hecha como aportes voluntarios, generalmente ingresada sin comisión, esa fracción constituye apenas 0,33% del Fondo de Jubilaciones y Pensiones total.

¿Es que alguien alguna vez creyó algo en las AFJP?

84 comentarios:

Ana C. dijo...

Si usted lo dice...

cansarnoso dijo...

no sé, mis dedos se pegotearon con la medialuna porque de grasa ya no quedaban
era sólo para abrir el debate

Ana C. dijo...

Pero uno no aporta mucho por mes si en 10 años junta 10.000 pesos ¿no?

cansarnoso dijo...

res non verba

http://www.safjp.gov.ar/SISAFJP/Publicaciones/Boletín+Estadístico/

cuadro 15

y por esas migajas se histeriqueán los apologistas de las coimisiones!!

y fijáte "nuestra" profesión sin auge

Anónimo dijo...

Ana C.:
Otro cálculo, con mayor aporte.
Saldo: $ 31700 (de 1994 a 2007).
Profesional, autónomo categoría intermedia, salvo un año de buen sueldo en relación de dependencia.
¿Cuánto me dejaría por mes? Algo así como $ 400, me parece.
RCW

Miguel Olivera dijo...

can

el sistema es una porquería pero tiene algo de costo hundido.
la salida elegida es peor.

a su post: que me diga que septiembre 2008 es "previo a la debacle" me causa gracias... la debacle empezó en febrero de 2007... a entonces el spread medido por EMBI-AR era menor a 200bps.

cansarnoso dijo...

miguel

lo de "previo a la debacle" del 30/9 es mala redacción
y solo para relativizar los datos que estaba tomando (los últimos publicados)
que a esta hora, e incluso la semana pasada, sabiamos que ya eran muy viejos
y seguro que si volvemos a los archivos de febrero marzo 2007 encontremos algun post donde ya entonces coincidiamos o disprebamos

los costos hundidos estan

que se haga algo debatible por los motivos equivocados (o falsos, sí es la caja, no hay duda)

ahora los datos de
$180 mensuales (o $400 de rcq)

el 0,33% de los sueldos y superiores que efectivamente creían que las afjp son buen negocio

debatámoslo

cansarnoso dijo...

jue pucha

googleando encontré algo de nov 06 sobre el cer-moreno, anterior al ene 07 explicito, en tus exequias de friedman.

blogueo de anticipacion (aunque fue el manco que terminó en la plata):

cansarnoso dijo...

"if you have been able to issue securities at an interest rate that is lower than the rate of inflation, you can expropiate those securities"
pero salvo chauchaypalito en PRE5, PRO7 no hay bonos en pesos nominales

afirmacion que excluye:
a) el riesgo INDEC-Moreno en los $CER
b) los titulos tailor-made al ANSeS para que los jubilados subsidien al Tesoro (idem en los Plazos Fijos en el BNA. vieron la diferencia entre el BADLAR bancos privados y bancos públicos). Todo sea para que Sergio Massa obtenga la bendicion papal (de papito, se entiende) para viajar a La Plata.
c)Los LEBAC (NOBAC no tanto, por ser spread sobre tasa flotante).
La autocorreccuón del deficit cuasi-fiscal?
noviembre 22, 2006 10:48 PM

il postino dijo...

cansarnoso

hay 98000 palos en las AFJPs; las 10000 lucas promedio que decis son por afiliado, no por aportante....te comiste ese detalle en serio

hay 3.8 millones de aportantes

Ergo, el saldo promedio es $24,500
Los años de aporte promedio no deben superar los 6 o 7.

Si una persona aporta 40 años, acumularia en promedio alrededor de 130,000...pero a eso hay que estimarle un crecimiento de los saldos debido a los rindes reales de las inversiones (promedio ultimos 14 años, maso 7.7%; si no hubieran tenido que comprar tantos bonos de un pais bananero, 2 o 3 puntos mas de piso)

A ojo de buen cubero, asumiendo que cada aportante no mejore sus ingresos nunca, debe dar unas 300 lucas reales dentro de treinta años...mas o menos 3500 pesos por mes ¿no? sin sumarle la PBU....

Cuanto es el 82% movil del salario promedio de los aportantes? Probablemente ande por ahí

Me equivoco mucho? Te ruego me corrijas, y te aclaro que las cuentas las hice a ojito

cansarnoso dijo...

postino

como dice el título del post, lo mío también es con mucho ojímetro

no hay 98, apenas 70 gigamangos, budu dixit
al 18/10, cuanto? 80 millardos?

y hay ajustes que faltan hacer:
ej. a) bonos mark-to-market que cotizan poco - tengo pror1 en alguna cartera a 156 cotizacion de feb, identico perfil al pr12, que hoy cotiza a 60, y sin riesgo riojano
b) los fideicomisos, mark to market, a la par o cerca de la emisión -mark-to-market? o descontando flujos futuros a tasas de hoy?

cansarnoso dijo...

postino

vayamos por partes, sigo depostando

en la diferencia aportantes / afiliados tenés (casi) toda la razón
pero a costa de generarle 6 millones de dolores de cabeza al sistema previsional (sea como fuere)

entre los afiliados no aportantes estoy yo
aporté 9 años como autonomo más algunos superpuestos también en relación de dependencia
inicio en el 95 -no desde el comienzo, un año despues bajo la óptica: si no puedes vencerlos, únete a ellos
dejé de aportar en 04, cuando la afip me pasó de responsable no inscripto a monotributista, y como correlato volví a reparto

pero el toquito está, generando ganancias y -ultimamente- pérdidas

y así, entro en el denominador sin ser aportante

el número de rcw es interesante

cansarnoso dijo...

postino

otro bocado

puse 10 años como promedio ponderado del stock inicial (digamos 80% hasta 40 años, y 30% mayores) y la afiliación vegetativa de los que fueron entrando en el mercado laboral

los 40 años que ponés hoy es utopía hasta en japón
acabo de recorrer los listados de mis compañeros de primaria y secundaria
los unicos que siguen en lo suyo desde siempre son los que ingresaron en el boliche del padre, lo heredaron y sobrevivieron (lo que no ha sido poco) o lo hicieron crecer (que ya es proeza)

ingresar como cadete y jubilarse como gerente general es historia vieja, si es que alguna vez fue
como estoy más cerca de la cancha de bochas que del centro de estudiantes
miro alrededor, y en general, el pico de ingresos ha sido a los 40 y tantos
hoy la mayoría está aguantando más que crecer
es decir que avalaría bastante tu hipotesis de falta de aumentos salariales reales personales

cansarnoso dijo...

postino

ultima presa de la gallina degollada (por ahora)

"rindes reales de las inversiones ... si no hubieran tenido que comprar tantos bonos de un pais bananero"

pero es que lo somos, crecen en orán, salta

pero más en serio, tu comentario me recuerda algo que vi de horacio liendo (socías del mingo tanto tiempo):
"si las afjp hubieran sido más enérgicas ..."
pero está en la propia naturaleza de las afjp ser hijos bobos bien pagos

no me gusta la reforma, y menos por no hacer explícito su propósito
pero, admitámoslo, nada han hecho las afjp para ganarse la confianza de sus clientes

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